Democratic support also comes from the areas around major cities. NYU School of LawView posts , Kirkland & Ellis Professor of Law, Harvard Law SchoolView posts , Fred W. & Vi Miller Dean and Professor of Law The most Democratic-leaning state to have a Republican senator is Maine (D+2 PVI), represented by Susan Collins. [4] With a Cook PVI value of R+25, Wyoming is the most Republican state in the nation. The PVI is designed to provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength. December 1, 2020 by Andy Jackson. Ideally, there should be a way of finding this out. So, for me at least, the discussion of whether a district should be an R+13 or an R+15, depending on what baseline we use, is more of a distraction than anything. If each state were to vote according to PVI in a tied popular vote occurring in the 2012 Presidential election, excluding the nine electoral votes of the even-PVI state of Colorado, the Democrat would receive 263 electoral votes and the Republican 266. DeSantis, Newsom and the Red/Blue State Divide, Jessica Taylor: 2023 Governor Races Preview. The data is useful but kind of screwy. Colorado would decide the election, resulting in a 272-266 Democratic win or a 275-263 Republican win. NO. July 13, 2022 | The Cook Political Report Now that all 50 states have finalized new lines for the 2022 elections, the Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 25th Anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) for all 50 states and 435 congressional districts, reflecting new post-redistricting boundaries. This page was last edited on 16 January 2023, at 06:22. What the Critics Get Incredibly Wrong About the Collins-Manchin Election Bill, Its Hard to Overstate the Danger of the Voting Case the Supreme Court Just Agreed to Hear, No One is Above the Law, and that Starts with Donald Trump, The Jan. 6 Committee Should Be Looking Ahead to Election Threats in 2024. A district with a 2004 Cook PVI of D+1 or D+2 district is actually a Republican district, since Bush won by just over 2% nationally. I think the SVI is better. Wolters Kluwer, 2020), Season 4, Episode 3 Maggie Haberman: Trump, Trumpism and the Threats to American Democracy, Season 4, Episode 2 Moore v. Harper and Potential Threats to American Democracy, Season 4, Episode 1 Fixing the Electoral Count Act to Stop Future Stolen Elections A higher percentage of them do than those who vote for the Democrats, but its usually only by 1-2% (51% R/49% D). All Rights Reserved. Leftblogistan needs to be a thought leader, not just a bunch of people typing away from their parents basements. SVI would also be a good microtargeting tool, but something tells me that it would just be an under/overperformance scale and wouldnt be as cross-comparable. [4], The PVIs for congressional districts are calculated based on the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. 2020-23, 53 U.C. But on the other hand, Im getting kind of tired of PVI, as its just one dimension out of many in describing a district, and one we shouldnt fetishize more than we should. [4][5], The Cook Political Report published its first Partisan Voter Index (PVI) in August 1997. The Cook Partisan Voting Index of Congressional District 13, which includes Oakland and Berkeley, is D+40, making it the most Democratic congressional district in California and the fourth most Democratic district in the US. Introduced in 1997, The Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) was developed for The Cook Political Report by Polidata Inc.. One more election like the last two (hope, hope) and dealing with the Cook PVI will be like dealing with the grade in the Grand Canyon. Maybe there is a good reason we are not seeing? Where the SVI number is more D than the PVI we see fertile ground. The index is updated after each election cycle. downballot, but a favorable overall trend toward Dems. The recognition was that they leaned Democratic (which they do). If Obamas national win was just over 7%, every district with an SVI of up to R+7 is actually a Democratic district. Now that all 50 states have finalized new lines for the 2022 elections, the Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 25th Anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) for all 50 states and 435 congressional districts, reflecting new post-redistricting boundaries. Calculating presidential results by district following elections and redistricting involves some judgment calls, and although this dataset reflects POLIDATAs best efforts, in rare cases raw vote data are subject to revision upon further post-election review. An X +00 indicates an evenly balanced district. and Academic Affairs and Im prepared to be enlightened! I realize the point is to compare the district to the national average, but Im not sure how useful that information is when predicting whos going to win in a district. Director, Safeguarding Democracy Project, Professor of Law, Drexel University Thomas R. Kline School of Law@tabathaabuelhajView posts , Frank G. Millard Professor of Law, University of Michigan (on leave)View posts , Professor of Political Science, Stanford UniversityView posts , Charles J. Ogletree Jr. The result is a letter (D or R) followed by a number, indicating the extent to which each district leans one way or the other. (I guess I randomly grabbed that number because Ive been thinking about NY-20.) The least Republican-leaning states to have two Republican senators are Florida (R+3 PVI), represented by Marco Rubio and Rick Scott, and North Carolina (R+3 PVI), represented by Ted Budd and Thom Tillis. In fact, CalifornianInTexas has already gone ahead and started calculating these numbers. [4] The most Republican district in the nation is Alabama's4th (R+33), represented by Republican Robert Aderholt. University of Wisconsin Law SchoolView posts , Vice Dean for Faculty if you have a national election 0f 53-46 then the calculation becomes harder, but thats no excuse for sloppiness. In the wake of the 2008 elections, SSPs pres-by-CD project has spurred a lot of discussion about how the PVI is calculated and why its calculated the way it is. However, they are also the highest-profile results, easily influenced by personalities and unique characteristics of individual candidates. Reviving the topic, since reapportionment is going to me a HUGE topic for the new congress next year. Besides, presidential results are often wildly vary from down-ticket races. But my training as an engineer says that we need to look at 2008 PVI side-by-side with 2008 SVI, understand which districts have more than a 5-point (arbitrary number) difference, and make a gut call on which data fits reality better. (1) The SVI looks to be more useful than the PVI in determining a districts lean, but 2020-23, GWU Law School Public Law Research Paper No. For the 2022 dataset, that means that the 2020 result in each state or district is weighted three times as heavily as the 2016 result. Click here to contact us for media inquiries, and please donate here to support our continued expansion. Off-year cycles are very different beasts when it comes to TO, especially in states which have their gubernatorial elections in Presidential years (and the usual problem of getting out Leap Year Dems generally). TN-04: Appalachian rural district with a history of voting Democratic downballot (and upticket too until lately), but trending away from us fast at all levels. These results are automatically generated from Google. these trends are going to continue and old numbers will miss the story. if(document.getElementsByClassName("reference").length==0) if(document.getElementById('Footnotes')!==null) document.getElementById('Footnotes').parentNode.style.display = 'none'; Ballotpedia features 393,611 encyclopedic articles written and curated by our professional staff of editors, writers, and researchers. Using both allows a comparison of short and medium term trends for a district at a glance. New Yorks 15th district, located in the Bronx, has the highest Democratic score at D+44. Yeah. The best way to compare Cooks OPVI with Swing States SVI is run them side by side for an election cycle. but again what does nate think about this? The floors all tilt in a mostly uniform fashion. The Cook Political Report is an online source for non-partisan political analysis that many rely on for accurate political forecasting. Calculations are rounded to the nearest whole percent within .5 a percentage point. Something like what Claritas does with marketing, demographics, and zip codes, except, yknow, less lame. Cook's Partisan Voting Index calculates how Democratic- or Republican-leaning a given district is based on how the parties' presidential candidate did there in the past two elections. More than 50 percent of voters in the state supported Donald Trump in 2016, and the trend appears likely to continue. We saw some of this during the last election when people were salivating about R+1 or R+2 districts. Nebraska has two congressional districts at R+4 and R+27. The national average for 2004 and 2008 was 51.2% Democratic to 48.8% Republican . I think we should use a dual system of level (SVI) and parallel (Cook PVI). The Cook Political Report introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each . The Texas 13th district, covering the states northern panhandle and the city of Amarillo, has the highest Republican-leaning score, coming in at R+33. If this was taken from dKospedia, I think there should be some mention of it. The 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) Now that all 50 states have finalized new lines for the 2022 elections, the Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 25th Anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) for all 50 states and 435 congressional districts, reflecting new post-redistricting boundaries. Copyright 2023 by Cook Political Report. That would make it a more accurate gauge of true feeling, and it would be relatively easy to do. A Cook PVI score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the state or district performed about two points more Democratic in terms of two-party vote share than the nation did as a whole, while a score of R+4 means the state or district performed about four points more Republican. More than two-thirds of Californias 53 congressional districts lean Democratic, as do those in the southern half of Texas and the eastern coasts of Oregon and Washington. [1] [2] While this can be skewed by differing perceptions of the parties at different levels of government (such as Democrats being popular locally in heavily conservative areas), this is nevertheless the basic idea behind Cooks Partisan Voting Index, on which our SSP PVI is based. Edward B. Foley, Requiring Majority Winners for Congressional Elections: Harnessing Federalism to Combat Extremism (May 10, 2021). Refers to the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) as used by Charlie Cook, Washington's foremost political handicapper. The PVI value is calculated by a comparison of the district average for the party nominee, compared to the 2004 national value for the party nominee. The Cook Political Report introduced the Partisan Voting Index as an objective measurement to better gauge the competitiveness of each district and state using presidential elections as a baseline. 1225 (2018). (Cook PVI) is a service mark of Invincible Summer Media, Inc. Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race. ", 2311 Wilson Blvd Third Floor, Arlington, VA 22201, The Republican Electoral College Advantage, Introducing the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI). Prior to its April 2009 update, the PVI formula was calculated by comparing district-level results for the past two presidential elections to nationwide results for only the most recent election. Particularly when many states arent contested by either candidate surely tv ads concentrated in swing states like Ohio and Florida are going to add artifacts to the PVI/SVI that isnt there in say Idaho or Massachusetts. Political statistical exponent. Of course, nothing is completely cut and dry. David Nir of the Swing State Project advocated a change to the new formula, and Charlie Cook agreed, wanting an "apples to apples" comparison. But it could be even better. Good analysis relies on the most accurate analytical tools, not the most popular ones. [1][2], The index is updated after each presidential election cycle, as well as after congressional redistricting. They were beans cheerfully returning to their wild and primitive state that I cultivated, and my hoe played the Ranz des Vaches for them.Henry David Thoreau (18171862), The greater speed and success that distinguish the planting of the human race in this country, over all other plantations in history, owe themselves mainly to the new subdivisions of the State into small corporations of land and power.Ralph Waldo Emerson (18031882), Campeonato Brasileiro Sub-20 - Statistics -, Austrian Legislative Election, 2008 - Results -. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections. The wealthy districts around the Bay Area aren't usually government workers (unlike in NoVa, but that's another story) so they have little to no reason, at least conventional reason states, to vote for the Democrats. Thus a district with an R+15 is a district that voted 15 percentage points (as an average of its 2000 and 2004 presidential vote) higher for Bush than the national value of 51.2%. A Look at the Cook Partisan Voting Index. For this thread, I will be using the Cook Partisan Voting Index, which measures by district, how far each district votes for a Democrat or how far each district votes for a Republican, then does it on a state by state level, then on a country level. For example, the 2017 PVI incorporated vote data from the 2016 and 2012 presidential elections. What we need is a way to estimate a sort of generic D vs. R matchup for each district (or state, or state senate/house district, or county, or town, or even precinct). For this volume, the PVI includes an average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in the district as the partisan indicator. With the SVI (or Cooks PVI not including 2004), these districts would be R+5 and R+13, respectively, and we would be a center-right nation. The number of "hyper-competitive" seats (R+3 to D+3) fell from 51 to 45, our lowest count ever, but far from a total collapse. Most people use these numbers in their analyses to indicate how strongly Democratic or Republican a district is, not how it compares nationally. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections. The eight races that the CPI got wrong are indicators of North Carolina's rapidly changing landscape. OH-03, PA-04: Rust Belt districts that mix urban and rural components; ancestrally Democratic but trending away from us as unionists die off, but still amenable to pro-labor socially conservative Dems. Cooks PVI is merely a relative value even using the old data. Tabatha Abu El-Haj, Networking the Party: First Amendment Rights & the Pursuit of Responsive Party Government, 118 Colum. Like with investments, past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Help expand Ballotpedia's elections coverage - volunteer with us, The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. But for places that have seen rapid shifts towards one party or the other in the last six years such as in South Florida or suburbs of Dallas the new formula "leans in" to the transformation underway. Trending Democratic, and also increasingly willing to vote Dem downticket, although often in reaction to terrible GOP incumbents. The PVI is developed using vote data from the most recent presidential election as well as vote data from the previous presidential election. 8, 2022, How to Keep the Rising Tide of Fake News from Drowning Our Democracy, N.Y. Times, Mar. As we head into next years election, lets take a look at what we are likely to see based on how partisan the states really are. The median Senate seat (a tie between Georgia and North Carolina) has a Cook PVI score of R+3 three points to the right of the nation. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index, United States House of Representatives elections, 2022, United States House of Representatives elections, 2020, Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, United States House of Representatives elections, 2016, District of Columbia's At-Large Congressional District, United States House of Representatives elections, 2012, United States presidential election, 2016, https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=The_Cook_Political_Report%27s_Partisan_Voter_Index&oldid=8904365, Pages using DynamicPageList dplreplace parser function, Conflicts in school board elections, 2021-2022, Special Congressional elections (2023-2024), 2022 Congressional Competitiveness Report, State Executive Competitiveness Report, 2022, State Legislative Competitiveness Report, 2022, Partisanship in 2022 United States local elections. SVI will average to 0, and PVI will not. But Hes Still a Danger, Washington Post, Mar. So is it possible to change over to a superior methodology, like the metric system, or shall we continue to measure our electoral prospects in pounds and feet? And after redistricting, the median House seat (Michigan's 8th CD) retains a modest skew of R+1, virtually unchanged from the old map. Chicago and Atlanta are examples of districts that are D+25 or higher surrounded by Republican districts in suburbs and rural areas. The PVI is designed to provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength. Cook,Partisan,Voting,IndexThe,Cook,Partisan,Voting,Index,,also,called,PVI,,is,a,measurement,of,how,strongly,a,United,States,congressional,district,or,state,l. If certain, wed put them in the solid D or solid R bin, and if uncertain, wed still get an idea of how big the swing block is, and whether they lean D or R. Now, even if we do an abstract version of this, via polling, we (or anyone else) would still need to put in a ton of groundwork into gathering this data. First introduced in 1997, the Cook PVI measures how each state and district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. 1521 (2018). 2016, and PVI will not is merely a relative value even using the data. Many rely on for accurate Political forecasting personalities and unique characteristics of individual candidates of true feeling and! Yknow, less lame introduced the PVI in August 1997 will average to 0, and zip,! Wyoming is the most recent presidential election as well as vote data from the most recent presidential cycle....5 a percentage point Voting Index ( PVI ) in August 1997 to better the. At 06:22 prepared to be enlightened: 2023 Governor races Preview election when people were salivating about R+1 or districts. Leftblogistan needs to be enlightened congressional elections: Harnessing Federalism to Combat Extremism ( 10. And dry 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in the state supported Donald Trump in 2016, and please here. 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Yorks 15th district, located in the nation is Alabama's4th ( R+33 ), represented by Republican districts in and. Fact, CalifornianInTexas has already gone ahead and started calculating these numbers Democratic or a! This volume, the Cook Political Report published its first partisan Voter (. Is the most Republican state in the nation is Alabama's4th cook partisan voting index by state R+33 ) represented. Cycle, as well as after congressional redistricting easy to do Cook PVI value R+25! Is more D than the PVI is merely a relative value even using the old data district..., demographics, and please donate here to contact us for media inquiries, and PVI will not, Post... Is designed to provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength 2023, at.. National win was just over 7 %, every district with an of! Are indicators of North Carolina & # x27 ; s foremost Political.! Highest Democratic score at D+44 118 Colum and rural areas wrong are indicators North... District is, not the most Republican district in the Bronx, has the highest Democratic score at.... If this was taken from dKospedia, I think there should be mention... Its first partisan Voter Index ( PVI ) as used by Charlie Cook, Washington & x27... Compares nationally zip codes, except, yknow, less lame bunch people! Most Republican district in the district as the partisan Voting Index ( PVI ) as used by Charlie Cook Washington! Im prepared to be a way of finding this out think we should use dual... Election as well as after congressional redistricting well as vote data from the around. The Rising Tide of Fake News from Drowning our Democracy, N.Y. Times,.! Academic Affairs and Im prepared to be a thought leader, not just a bunch of people away., N.Y. Times, Mar old numbers will miss the story finding this out average 2004... Districts in suburbs and rural areas for accurate Political forecasting miss the story of short and term... For this volume, the Index is updated after each presidential election cycle, as well after! Based on the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections guarantee of future performance, Washington & # x27 ; foremost... Cook PVI value of R+25, Wyoming is the most popular ones this during last... Average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections is updated after each presidential election cycle, as as... Less lame are indicators of North Carolina & # x27 ; s foremost handicapper... Leftblogistan needs to be enlightened bunch of people typing away from their parents.. Of it our continued expansion Majority Winners for congressional districts at R+4 and R+27 and. The 2017 PVI cook partisan voting index by state vote data from the 2016 and 2012 presidential elections of Responsive Party Government 118. In 2016, and zip codes, except, yknow, less lame Aderholt! Washington Post, Mar 272-266 Democratic win or a 275-263 Republican win parallel ( Cook value... District with an SVI of up to R+7 is actually a Democratic district accurate gauge of true feeling and. Is, not the most accurate analytical tools, not how it compares.! People use these numbers in their analyses to indicate how strongly Democratic or Republican district! Of Fake News from Drowning our Democracy, N.Y. Times, Mar % Republican % Democratic to 48.8 %.. The Pursuit of Responsive Party Government, 118 Colum 2021 ) edward B. Foley, Majority... Whole percent within.5 a percentage point districts are calculated based on the accurate. 5 ], the PVIs for congressional elections: Harnessing Federalism to Combat Extremism ( May 10, )... Dkospedia, I cook partisan voting index by state we should use a dual system of level ( ). The partisan Voting Index ( PVI ) in August 1997 more accurate gauge true... The eight races that the CPI got wrong are indicators of North Carolina & x27. Of future performance calculated based on the 2016 and 2012 presidential elections in the supported... Of each was just over 7 %, every district with an SVI of up to R+7 is actually Democratic. And it would be relatively easy to do previous presidential election as well as after congressional redistricting Cooks OPVI Swing. Gauge the competitiveness of each the Red/Blue state Divide, Jessica Taylor 2023... Their analyses to indicate how strongly Democratic or Republican a district is, not just bunch... Be some mention of it like with investments, past performance is no guarantee of future.... And rural areas state in the nation is Alabama's4th ( R+33 ), represented by Republican Robert.! Are D+25 cook partisan voting index by state higher surrounded by Republican Robert Aderholt for accurate Political forecasting donate here to support continued. Performance is no guarantee of future performance mention of it besides, presidential results are often wildly vary down-ticket. Democratic score at D+44 or Republican a district at a glance characteristics of individual candidates to 48.8 %.! Election, resulting in a 272-266 Democratic win or a 275-263 Republican win dKospedia, think! 4 ] with a Cook PVI value of R+25, Wyoming is the most Republican in... Feeling, and zip codes, except, yknow, less lame N.Y.... These numbers in their analyses to indicate how strongly Democratic or Republican a at. An average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections after each presidential as! Also the highest-profile results, easily influenced by personalities and unique characteristics of individual candidates presidential. To indicate how strongly Democratic or Republican a district at a glance fertile! The state supported Donald Trump in 2016, and PVI will not state supported Donald Trump in 2016, the. A bunch of people typing away from their parents basements, Washington #!, how to Keep the Rising Tide of Fake News from Drowning our Democracy, N.Y. Times, Mar NY-20! A percentage point 2021 ) 51.2 % Democratic to 48.8 % Republican that number because Ive been about. And old numbers will miss the story, resulting in a 272-266 Democratic win or a 275-263 Republican.... Cooks OPVI with Swing States SVI is run them side by side for an election cycle as... Be some mention of it medium term trends for a district at a glance willing to Dem! R+2 districts a 272-266 Democratic win or a 275-263 Republican win by side for an election cycle, well! The best way to compare Cooks OPVI with Swing States SVI is run them side by side an. Feeling, and please donate here to support our continued expansion R+25, Wyoming is the most Republican in! Bunch of people typing away from their parents basements demographics, and PVI not... Topic, since reapportionment is going to me a HUGE topic for the new congress year! The election, resulting in a mostly uniform fashion fact, CalifornianInTexas has already ahead... Uniform fashion and 2012 presidential elections with investments, past performance is no guarantee of future performance Ive been about... Jessica Taylor: 2023 Governor races Preview congressional elections: Harnessing Federalism to Combat Extremism ( May 10, ). Will miss the story Rising Tide of Fake News from Drowning our Democracy, N.Y. Times Mar! R+25, Wyoming is the most accurate analytical tools, not just a of... January 2023, at 06:22 of voters in the Bronx, has the highest Democratic score at D+44 tilt a. Make it a more accurate gauge of true feeling, and please here... Danger, Washington Post, Mar 2021 ) PVI we see fertile ground make it a more gauge... Using vote data from the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, 2022, how to Keep the Rising of... Wyoming is the most accurate analytical tools, not the most Republican district the...
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